Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist. AIM: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys. METHOD: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles. RESULTS: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Lipid-Modifying Agents, From Statins to PCSK9 Inhibitors: JACC Focus Seminar.

Mendelian randomization studies and randomized trials have conclusively demonstrated that lower low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol results in fewer cardiovascular events. This review describes key stages in the evolution of LDL cholesterol-lowering treatment. Data from over 25 cardiovascular outcome trials confirm that, within a few years, statins lower the relative risk of major atherosclerotic events by about 22% per 38.7 mg/dl (1 mmol/l) reduction in LDL cholesterol, with similar benefit across patient subgroups. Meta-analyses of these trials have established the safety of statins with regard to nonvascular mortality and cancer. Other agents available for prescription include ezetimibe and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors, which both reduce major atherosclerotic events in proportion to their effects on LDL cholesterol and have good safety profiles, though PCSK9 inhibitors remain costly. Investigational LDL cholesterol-lowering agents currently being tested in cardiovascular outcome studies are bempedoic acid, an adenosine triphosphate-citrate lyase inhibitor that reduces cholesterol synthesis, and inclisiran, a double-stranded small interfering ribonucleic acid that inhibits PCSK9 synthesis.

Phenome-wide association analysis of LDL-cholesterol lowering genetic variants in PCSK9.

BACKGROUND: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. METHODS: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. RESULTS: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.

Cardiovascular, mortality, and kidney outcomes with GLP-1 receptor agonists in patients with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cardiovascular outcome trials.

BACKGROUND: Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists differ in their structure and duration of action and have been studied in trials of varying sizes and with different patient populations, with inconsistent effects on cardiovascular outcomes reported. We aimed to synthesise the available evidence by doing a systematic review and meta-analysis of cardiovascular outcome trials of these drugs. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE (via PubMed) and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for eligible placebo-controlled trials reporting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; ie, cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction) up to June 15, 2019. We did a meta-analysis using a random-effects model to estimate overall hazard ratios (HRs) for MACE, its components, death from any cause, hospital admission for heart failure, kidney outcomes, and key safety outcomes (severe hypoglycaemia, pancreatitis, and pancreatic cancer). We also examined MACE in several subgroups based on patient characteristics (history of cardiovascular disease, BMI, age, baseline HbA1c, and baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate), trial duration, treatment dosing interval, and structural homology. FINDINGS: Of 27 publications screened, seven trials, with a combined total of 56 004 participants, were included: ELIXA (lixisenatide), LEADER (liraglutide), SUSTAIN-6 (semaglutide), EXSCEL (exenatide), Harmony Outcomes (albiglutide), REWIND (dulaglutide), and PIONEER 6 (oral semaglutide). Overall, GLP-1 receptor agonist treatment reduced MACE by 12% (HR 0·88, 95% CI 0·82-0·94; p<0·0001). There was no statistically significant heterogeneity across the subgroups examined. HRs were 0·88 (95% CI 0·81-0·96; p=0·003) for death from cardiovascular causes, 0·84 (0·76-0·93; p<0·0001) for fatal or non-fatal stroke, and 0·91 (0·84-1·00; p=0·043) for fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction. GLP-1 receptor agonist treatment reduced all-cause mortality by 12% (0·88, 0·83-0·95; p=0·001), hospital admission for heart failure by 9% (0·91, 0·83-0·99; p=0·028), and a broad composite kidney outcome (development of new-onset macroalbuminuria, decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [or increase in creatinine], progression to end-stage kidney disease, or death attributable to kidney causes) by 17% (0·83, 0·78-0·89; p<0·0001), mainly due to a reduction in urinary albumin excretion. There was no increase in risk of severe hypoglycaemia, pancreatitis, or pancreatic cancer. INTERPRETATION: Treatment with GLP-1 receptor agonists has beneficial effects on cardiovascular, mortality, and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. FUNDING: None.

The Impact of Airway Technique on Anesthesia Control Time.

Few studies have examined the impact of video laryngoscopy (VL) on operating room efficiency. We hypothesized that VL reduces anesthesia control time (ACT), a metric of anesthesia efficiency, compared with fiberoptic intubation (FOI) in potentially difficult airways, but that direct laryngoscopy (DL) remains more efficient in routine cases. We performed a multi-institutional, retrospective chart review of anesthetic cases from 2015 to 2016. Cases were compared based on choice of airway technique (laryngeal mask airway [LMA], DL, VL or FOI) and ACT. Generalized linear models with gamma distribution and log link were then used to model the data to control for variables including ASA physical status (PS), Mallampati (MP) score, body mass index, and presence of a trainee. ACT was analyzed for 32,542 cases. LMA insertion was associated with a median ACT of 10 min (CI 8-14 min), DL 14 min (CI 11-18 min), VL 17 min (CI 13-21 min) and FOI 20 min (CI 14.5-26 min). Modeling confirmed these results when controlling for variables expected to increase the ACT. However, modeling also revealed that presence of a trainee minimizes the increase in ACT for cases using VL or FOI. Use of VL in patients with a high MP score may improve anesthesia efficiency in the operating room. ASA PS, MP score, and presence of a trainee are all associated with an increased ACT. Trainee presence with both FOI and VL was associated with reduced increases in ACT for these devices.

Statin Safety and Associated Adverse Events: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

One in 4 Americans >40 years of age takes a statin to reduce the risk of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and other complications of atherosclerotic disease. The most effective statins produce a mean reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol of 55% to 60% at the maximum dosage, and 6 of the 7 marketed statins are available in generic form, which makes them affordable for most patients. Primarily using data from randomized controlled trials, supplemented with observational data where necessary, this scientific statement provides a comprehensive review of statin safety and tolerability. The review covers the general patient population, as well as demographic subgroups, including the elderly, children, pregnant women, East Asians, and patients with specific conditions such as chronic disease of the kidney and liver, human immunodeficiency viral infection, and organ transplants. The risk of statin-induced serious muscle injury, including rhabdomyolysis, is <0.1%, and the risk of serious hepatotoxicity is ≈0.001%. The risk of statin-induced newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus is ≈0.2% per year of treatment, depending on the underlying risk of diabetes mellitus in the population studied. In patients with cerebrovascular disease, statins possibly increase the risk of hemorrhagic stroke; however, they clearly produce a greater reduction in the risk of atherothrombotic stroke and thus total stroke, as well as other cardiovascular events. There is no convincing evidence for a causal relationship between statins and cancer, cataracts, cognitive dysfunction, peripheral neuropathy, erectile dysfunction, or tendonitis. In US clinical practices, roughly 10% of patients stop taking a statin because of subjective complaints, most commonly muscle symptoms without raised creatine kinase. In contrast, in randomized clinical trials, the difference in the incidence of muscle symptoms without significantly raised creatinine kinase in statin-treated compared with placebo-treated participants is <1%, and it is even smaller (0.1%) for patients who discontinued treatment because of such muscle symptoms. This suggests that muscle symptoms are usually not caused by pharmacological effects of the statin. Restarting statin therapy in these patients can be challenging, but it is important, especially in patients at high risk of cardiovascular events, for whom prevention of these events is a priority. Overall, in patients for whom statin treatment is recommended by current guidelines, the benefits greatly outweigh the risks.

Comparison between High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T and Cardiac Troponin I in a Large General Population Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Few data compare cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in a general population. We sought to evaluate the distribution and association between cTnT, cTnI, and cardiovascular risk factors in a large general population cohort. METHODS: High-sensitivity cTnT and cTnI were measured in serum from 19501 individuals in the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study. Associations with cardiovascular risk factors were compared using age- and sex-adjusted regression. Observed age- and sex-stratified 99th centiles were compared with 99th centiles for cTnT (men, 15.5 ng/L; women, 9.0 ng/L) and cTnI (men, 34.2 ng/L; women, 15.6 ng/L) used in clinical practice. RESULTS: cTnT and cTnI concentrations were detectable in 53.3% and 74.8% of participants, respectively, and were modestly correlated in unadjusted analyses (R 2 = 21.3%) and only weakly correlated after adjusting for age and sex (R 2 = 9.5%). Cardiovascular risk factors were associated with both troponins, but in age- and sex-adjusted analyses, cTnI was more strongly associated with age, male sex, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure (P < 0.0001 for all vs cTnT). cTnT was more strongly associated with diabetes (P < 0.0001 vs cTnI). The observed 99th centiles were broadly consistent with recommended 99th centiles in younger men and women. After the age of 60 years, observed 99th centiles increased substantially for cTnT, and beyond 70 years of age, the 99th centiles approximately doubled for both troponins. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, cTnT and cTnI concentrations are weakly correlated and are differentially associated with cardiovascular risk factors. The 99th centiles currently in use are broadly appropriate for men and women up to but not beyond the age of 60 years.

The Role of Emerging Risk Factors in Cardiovascular Outcomes.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review discusses the recent evidence for a selection of blood-based emerging risk factors, with particular reference to their relation with coronary heart disease and stroke. RECENT FINDINGS: For lipid-related emerging risk factors, recent findings indicate that increasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol is unlikely to reduce cardiovascular risk, whereas reducing triglyceride-rich lipoproteins and lipoprotein(a) may be beneficial. For inflammatory and hemostatic biomarkers, genetic studies suggest that IL-6 (a pro-inflammatory cytokine) and several coagulation factors are causal for cardiovascular disease, but such studies do not support a causal role for C-reactive protein and fibrinogen. Patients with chronic kidney disease are at high cardiovascular risk with some of this risk not mediated by blood pressure. Randomized evidence (trials or Mendelian) suggests homocysteine and uric acid are unlikely to be key causal mediators of chronic kidney disease-associated risk and sufficiently large trials of interventions which modify mineral bone disease biomarkers are unavailable. Despite not being causally related to cardiovascular disease, there is some evidence that cardiac biomarkers (e.g. troponin) may usefully improve cardiovascular risk scores. Many blood-based factors are strongly associated with cardiovascular risk. Evidence is accumulating, mainly from genetic studies and clinical trials, on which of these associations are causal. Non-causal risk factors may still have value, however, when added to cardiovascular risk scores. Although much of the burden of vascular disease can be explained by 'classic' risk factors (e.g. smoking and blood pressure), studies of blood-based emerging factors have contributed importantly to our understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms of vascular disease, and new targets for potential therapies have been identified.

Sustained influence of metformin therapy on circulating glucagon-like peptide-1 levels in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To investigate, in the Carotid Atherosclerosis: Metformin for Insulin Resistance (CAMERA) trial (NCT00723307), whether the influence of metformin on the glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 axis in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is sustained and related to changes in glycaemia or weight, and to investigate basal and post-meal GLP-1 levels in patients with T2DM in the cross-sectional Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (DIRECT) study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: CAMERA was a double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial of metformin in 173 participants without diabetes. Using 6-monthly fasted total GLP-1 levels over 18 months, we evaluated metformin's effect on total GLP-1 with repeated-measures analysis and analysis of covariance. In the DIRECT study, we examined active and total fasting and 60-minute post-meal GLP-1 levels in 775 people recently diagnosed with T2DM treated with metformin or diet, using Student's t-tests and linear regression. RESULTS: In CAMERA, metformin increased total GLP-1 at 6 (+20.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7-39.0), 12 (+26.7%, 95% CI 10.3-45.6) and 18 months (+18.7%, 95% CI 3.8-35.7), an overall increase of 23.4% (95% CI 11.2-36.9; P < .0001) vs placebo. Adjustment for changes in glycaemia and adiposity, individually or combined, did not attenuate this effect. In the DIRECT study, metformin was associated with higher fasting active (39.1%, 95% CI 21.3-56.4) and total GLP-1 (14.1%, 95% CI 1.2-25.9) but not post-meal incremental GLP-1. These changes were independent of potential confounders including age, sex, adiposity and glycated haemoglobin. CONCLUSIONS: In people without diabetes, metformin increases total GLP-1 in a sustained manner and independently of changes in weight or glycaemia. Metformin-treated patients with T2DM also have higher fasted GLP-1 levels, independently of weight and glycaemia.

The incremental prognostic and clinical value of multiple novel biomarkers in heart failure.

AIMS: In recent years there has been an increase in the number of biomarkers in heart failure (HF). The clinical role for these novel biomarkers in combination is not clear. METHODS AND RESULTS: The following novel biomarkers were measured from 628 patients recently hospitalized with decompensated HF; mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP), copeptin, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), ST2, galectin-3, cystatin C, combined free light chains (cFLC) and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). The incremental prognostic value of these novel biomarkers was evaluated within an extensive model containing established predictors of mortality. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 3.2 (1.5) years, 290 (46%) patients died. Elevated concentrations of all novel biomarkers were associated with an increased unadjusted risk of mortality but only two-thirds were independent predictors following multivariable analysis. Using dichotomized cut-points from receiver operating characteristic analysis, MR-proADM, hs-cTnT, cFLC, hsCRP, and ST2 remained independent predictors of mortality. Further dichotomization into low (0-2 elevated biomarkers) or high (at least three of the five biomarkers elevated) risk groups provided greatest incremental prognostic value (hazard ratio 2.20, 95% confidence interval 1.37-3.54; P = 0.001) and improved the performance of the model (C-statistic 0.730 from 0.721, net reclassification index 32.5%). CONCLUSION: The novel biomarkers included in this study added little, if any, incremental prognostic value on their own to a model containing established predictors of mortality. However, following dichotomization, five of the novel biomarkers provided incremental prognostic value. There was a clear gradient in the risk of death with increasing numbers of elevated novel biomarkers, with the presence of at least three identifying patients at greatest risk of mortality.

Body Mass Index and Risk of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Two Electronic Health Record Prospective Studies.

CONTEXT: The relationship between rising body mass index (BMI) and prospective risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is virtually absent. OBJECTIVE: Determine the extent of the association between BMI and risk of future NAFLD diagnosis, stratifying by sex and diabetes. DESIGN: Two prospective studies using Humedica and Health Improvement Network (THIN) with 1.54 and 4.96 years of follow-up, respectively. SETTING: Electronic health record databases. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with a recorded BMI measurement between 15 and 60 kg/m(2), and smoking status, and 1 year of active status before baseline BMI. Patients with a diagnosis or history of chronic diseases were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Recorded diagnosis of NAFLD/NASH during follow-up (Humedica International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code 571.8, and read codes for NAFLD and NASH in THIN). RESULTS: Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated across BMI categories using BMI of 20-22.5 kg/m(2) as the reference category, adjusting for age, sex, and smoking status. Risk of recorded NAFLD/NASH increased linearly with BMI and was approximately 5-fold higher in Humedica (HR = 4.78; 95% confidence interval, 4.17-5.47) and 9-fold higher in THIN (HR = 8.93; 7.11-11.23) at a BMI of 30-32.5 kg/m(2) rising to around 10-fold higher in Humedica (HR = 9.80; 8.49-11.32) and 14-fold higher in THIN (HR = 14.32; 11.04-18.57) in the 37.5- to 40-kg/m(2) BMI category. Risk of NAFLD/NASH was approximately 50% higher in men and approximately double in those with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: These data quantify the consistent and strong relationships between BMI and prospectively recorded diagnoses of NAFLD/NASH and emphasize the importance of weight reduction strategies for prevention and management of NAFLD.

Combined Free Light Chains Are Novel Predictors of Prognosis in Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the prevalence and potential incremental prognostic value of combined free light chains (cFLCs) in patients recently hospitalized with decompensated heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND: Inflammatory pathways are recognized in the pathogenesis and progression of HF. Free light chain (FLC) elevation is conventionally associated with monoclonal gammopathies, including multiple myeloma. Polyclonal increases in both kappa and lambda FLCs occur in autoimmune and other chronic inflammatory conditions. Recently, a novel assay for measuring kappa and lambda immunoglobulin FLCs together, known as combined free light chain (cFLC) has been developed. METHODS: Six hundred twenty-eight patients recently hospitalized with decompensated HF were studied. cFLCs were measured by turbidimetry using an immunoassay. The incremental prognostic value of cFLCs for mortality was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models including 22 established predictors of outcome in HF. RESULTS: Of 628 patients, 290 (46%) died during a follow-up of 3.2 ± 1.5 years. Two hundred seventy patients (43%) had elevated cFLCs. There was a clear gradient in the risk of death according to cFLC quartile, with those in the top quartile having an unadjusted risk of mortality more than twice that of those in the lowest quartile (hazard ratio: 2.38; p < 0.0001). After multivariable analysis, cFLC remained an independent predictor of mortality, with an almost 50% higher adjusted risk for those in the top compared with bottom quartile. Older age, lower body mass index, New York Heart Association classification III/IV, previous myocardial infarction, current smoking and B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, glycated hemoglobin, and lymphocyte concentrations were also independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: cFLCs are an independent predictor of mortality in patients recently hospitalized with decompensated HF. Further work is required to assess the effects of HF therapies on cFLC concentrations and whether or not directly targeting this marker of inflammation improves prognosis for patients with HF.

Prospective relationships between body weight and physical activity: an observational analysis from the NAVIGATOR study.

OBJECTIVES: While bidirectional relationships exist between body weight and physical activity, direction of causality remains uncertain and previous studies have been limited by self-reported activity or weight and small sample size. We investigated the prospective relationships between weight and physical activity. DESIGN: Observational analysis of data from the Nateglinide And Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) study, a double-blinded randomised clinical trial of nateglinide and valsartan, respectively. SETTING: Multinational study of 9306 participants. PARTICIPANTS: Participants with biochemically confirmed impaired glucose tolerance had annual measurements of both weight and step count using research grade pedometers, worn for 7 days consecutively. Along with randomisation to valsartan or placebo plus nateglinide or placebo, participants took part in a lifestyle modification programme. OUTCOME MEASURES: Longitudinal regression using weight as response value and physical activity as predictor value was conducted, adjusted for baseline covariates. Analysis was then repeated with physical activity as response value and weight as predictor value. Only participants with a response value preceded by at least three annual response values were included. RESULTS: Adequate data were available for 2811 (30%) of NAVIGATOR participants. Previous weight (χ(2)=16.8; p<0.0001), but not change in weight (χ(2)=0.1; p=0.71) was inversely associated with subsequent step count, indicating lower subsequent levels of physical activity in heavier individuals. Change in step count (χ(2)=5.9; p=0.02) but not previous step count (χ(2)=0.9; p=0.34) was inversely associated with subsequent weight. However, in the context of trajectories already established for weight (χ(2) for previous weight measurements 747.3; p<0.0001) and physical activity (χ(2) for previous step count 432.6; p<0.0001), these effects were of limited clinical importance. CONCLUSIONS: While a prospective bidirectional relationship was observed between weight and physical activity, the magnitude of any effect was very small in the context of natural trajectories already established for these variables. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00097786.

Predictors of cardiovascular events in a contemporary population with impaired glucose tolerance: an observational analysis of the Nateglinide and Valsartan in impaired glucose tolerance outcomes research (NAVIGATOR) trial.

OBJECTIVES: Risk factors for cardiovascular events are well established in general populations and those with diabetes but have been sparsely studied in impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). We sought to identify predictors of (1) a composite cardiovascular outcome (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke) and (2) cardiovascular death, among patients with IGT. DESIGN: We studied participants enrolled in the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. Predictors of cardiovascular events were identified in observational analyses. SETTING: Clinical trial participants in 40 countries. PARTICIPANTS: 9306 participants with biochemically confirmed IGT at high risk of cardiovascular events participated in NAVIGATOR. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Cox proportional hazard regression models were constructed using variables (demographic data, medical history, clinical features, biochemical results and ECG findings) recorded at baseline to identify variables associated with and predictive of cardiovascular events. RESULTS: Over 6.4 years, 639 (6.9%) participants experienced a cardiovascular event, and 244 (2.6%) cardiovascular death. While predictors of both outcomes included established risk factors such as existing cardiovascular disease, male gender, older age, current smoking status and higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, other variables such as reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate, previous thromboembolic disease, atrial fibrillation, higher urinary albumin/creatinine ratio and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were also important predictors. Glycaemic measures were not predictive of cardiovascular events. c-Statistics for predicting cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death were 0.74 and 0.82, respectively. This compares with c-statistics for cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death of 0.65 and 0.71, respectively, using the classical Framingham risk factors of age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension and smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: The most powerful independent predictors of cardiovascular events in IGT included both established risk factors and other variables excluding measures of glycaemia, allowing effective identification of high-risk individuals.

The inverse relationship between alanine aminotransferase in the normal range and adverse cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular outcomes.

BACKGROUND: High serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels have been associated with increased risk of diabetes and with increased mortality, but associations of variations of ALT in the normal range with outcomes have been less well studied. METHODS: We studied the relationship between ALT, mortality and cardiovascular events in the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) and the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) trials that explicitly excluded subjects with clinically significant liver damage, plus the Leiden 85-plus, a study of survivors to age 85 years. The associations between ALT and morbidity and mortality outcomes were investigated using Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for a comprehensive panel of cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: In all three study cohorts, ALT displayed an independent inverse relationship with all-cause mortality so that hazard ratios for fourth versus first quarter of ALT were all below 1.0; HRs 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.50-0.81], 0.86 (0.73-1.01), 0.66 (0.50-0.87); WOSCOPS, PROSPER, Leiden 85-plus, respectively. In WOSCOPS and PROSPER, ALT was also inversely associated with risk of fatal plus non-fatal cardiovascular events, including coronary heart disease (CHD) events and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In three independent populations, ALT in the normal range displayed an inverse relationship with total mortality, cardiovascular events and non-cardiovascular events in middle-to-older aged subjects without evidence of clinically significant liver damage, independent of traditional cardiovascular and other risk factors. These findings indicate that the relationship between ALT and clinical outcomes is more complex than generally appreciated.